ALERT: The PP takes 31% of the votes of Cs, the PSOE 32% of those of Podemos and Vox stagnates as its loyalty falls to 65%
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The 2023 regional elections in Castile and León see the two traditional parties reclaim their dominance, as new forces like Vox and Podemos falter.
Fifteen years after Spain’s 15-M protests, which led to the rise of new political forces like Podemos, the 2023 elections in Castile and León have marked a dramatic shift back to the traditional powerhouses, the People’s Party (PP) and the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE). With new parties such as Vox and Podemos struggling to retain voter loyalty, the election results have effectively sealed their political decline in the region. The PP and PSOE’s resurgence is being credited to strategic shifts and successful vote transfers, with the two parties regaining significant ground from their newer counterparts.
A New Era for the PP and PSOE
The PP, led by Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, found success by attracting 31.4% of voters who had previously backed Ciudadanos in the 2022 elections, a shift that contributed 17,182 new votes to their tally. This move allowed them to secure a total of 33 seats, bolstering their position in the center of the political spectrum. On the other side, PSOE, under the leadership of Carlos Martínez, capitalized on 32.4% of the former Podemos vote, gaining 20,120 votes, which translated into an additional two seats, bringing their total to 30.
“The PP and PSOE are benefiting from a wave of consolidation, as both parties increase their voter loyalty,” according to the SocioMétrica study for El Español.
Meanwhile, the vote transfer between the two main parties shows how fluid the electorate has become. The PSOE pulled 5.1% of its voters from the PP, amounting to 18,783 votes. Conversely, the PP gained just 2.2% (8,369 votes) from socialist supporters. Voter loyalty remains high for both parties, with the PP retaining 81.4% of its previous voters, and PSOE holding onto 77%. This strong base suggests a promising future for both parties as they leave behind the splintered vote that once empowered smaller, newer groups.
Vox Struggles to Maintain Ground
While Vox, once seen as the fastest-growing party on the right, managed to gain one additional seat (bringing their total to 14), the party saw a significant drop in voter loyalty. Historically, Vox had boasted the highest retention rate among political parties, often surpassing 70%. However, their loyalty rate plummeted to just 65.1%, signaling a loss of trust among its base. Despite this, Vox did manage to attract 9.5% of its votes from disillusioned PP voters, while 9.3% of its support went the other way.
Despite these gains, Vox’s performance fell short of expectations, with many analysts predicting the party could surpass 20 seats in the region. They also saw a notable portion of their support, about 2.6% (5,600 votes), drift toward the new political party Se Acabó la Fiesta, led by Alvise Pérez. If Vox had retained these votes, they would have secured additional seats in Valladolid, Segovia, and Zamora.
Vox also attracted 5,388 votes (2.5%) from former socialist voters, a figure lower than what the party managed to secure in Aragón, where they took 4% of socialist support. The overall shift of votes to and from Vox highlights the fragility of the right-wing coalition in the region and the growing dissatisfaction within their base.
Decline of the Provincialist Parties
Another significant development in the Castile and León elections was the decline of provincialist parties, such as Soria Ya! and the Leonesistas of UPL. The PSOE gained ground in Soria, benefitting from Carlos Martínez’s position as mayor, which led to a loss of 24.3% of votes for Soria Ya! in favor of the socialists. Similarly, the Leonesistas of UPL had the highest loyalty rate among provincialist parties, with 64.2% of their 2022 voters sticking with them, although these parties’ influence continues to wane.
In regions like León and Ávila, voter transfers were more favorable to the PP and PSOE. In León, 9.5% of voters switched to the PP, and 3.4% opted for PSOE, while in Ávila, 7.7% of provincialist voters backed the PSOE. The flight of voters to Vox among these provincialist parties was minimal, though Vox did manage to secure its first seat in Soria.
The technical methodology behind these findings, as outlined by SocioMétrica, involved an extensive survey of 3,400 respondents, with a sampling error of 2.5%. The study’s results suggest that the political landscape in Castile and León has shifted back towards the traditional parties, with the rise of smaller, newer parties now appearing to be in decline.
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Source: This article was originally published in another language by El Español – Home and has been translated and adapted for our global English-speaking audience. Read the original article here.