LATEST: Meloni wants to change the electoral system due to fear of losing or drawing the next 2027 elections | International
International Briefing:
The following report highlights an important international development currently attracting worldwide attention.
In Italy there is a surprising political habit, seen from Spain, which is to periodically change the electoral system, according to the interests of whoever governs, to try to make it favor him in the following elections. After the first post-war system, changes began in 1993 and since then there have been five. Giorgia Meloni, who fears losing the next elections, has been no less and this Friday she has brought to the Chamber of Deputies a law for a new electoral system that will determine how voting will be done in the general elections scheduled for October 2027. It is only the beginning of a parliamentary process where there is still much to discuss and which, if all goes well, would culminate in September. Then the elections could be brought forward and there is already talk of April. Not before, because that is when four and a half years and one day of the legislature is over, the limit from which deputies have the right to a lifetime pension, and an internal rebellion would break out in the chambers if they were dissolved before. This is the authentic transversal ideology of Italian politics. But the truth is that Italy is already in the pre-campaign, since Meloni’s Government is languishing without having made major reforms in its mandate, and accelerating with the electoral law is the definitive confirmation. Meloni and his alliance of right-wing and far-right parties won the previous elections in 2022 – in Italy the legislature lasts five years – because the left went to the polls divided and the electoral system rewarded coalitions. This has made possible the longest and most stable Government of the Italian Republic (it will break the record in September), but this time the center-left has learned its lesson, is already forging a coalition and Meloni knows that the miracle will not be repeated. The polls are very close, but more than losing, the prime minister fears a tie. It would open the door to the classic Italian negotiations to search for consensus candidates, where names of technicians who have not been elected at the polls come out of the hat. In fact, there is already an unspeakable tie party, those center forces that see their greatest possibilities of influence and benefits in the game of pacts that is unleashed in that situation. They want to go back to what they have always done. For Meloni, there is also a very unbalancing factor that worries him: the emergence of the new far-right party of former general Roberto Vanacci, National Future. He accuses Meloni and Matteo Salvini’s League of having softened towards power and disappointed the most extreme expectations. It is not yet known, and he maintains the suspense, whether Vanacci will enter the right-wing coalition or not, because the polls already give him even above the League, with 7%, and if he participates freely, losing that percentage is lethal for Meloni’s coalition. For him there is also a wink in the new law: parties that do not already have a parliamentary group, like Vanacci’s, must collect more than 100,000 signatures to be able to present themselves. Another tradition is to baptize the voting system with a Latin word, like Asterix and Obélix. The previous ones were Mattarellum, Porcellum – so called because its author bluntly confessed that it was a porcata (dirty thing) designed to prevent the opposition from governing -, Italicum and Rosatellum. In this case, for the Executive this law is called Stabilicum, because according to their point of view it ensures the stability of the Government that comes out of the polls. For the opposition, however, it is Mellonelum, a name that denotes a pastiche that only interests the prime minister. To further complicate matters, numerous constitutional law jurists have warned that the text violates some points of the Constitution and could be the subject of appeals. Although they would not be resolved until long after the vote had been taken, which has already happened and even if the law is declared illegal, nothing can be done. Whatever it is called, the new system is proportional, but with a seat award that gives a comfortable majority (a bonus of 70 deputies and 35 senators) to the coalition that exceeds 42% of the votes in both chambers. There are two key issues. One is that until now a third of the seats were chosen in electoral colleges by a majority system (the candidate who won was elected), something that would favor the left, and now everything will be proportional, with several seats at stake in each college. The election of the President of the Republic, on the horizon The other problematic point is the package of gift seats. The winner enjoys a majority that places him in an advantageous position for the election of the President of the Republic, which requires a two-thirds majority and, from the fourth vote onwards, only an absolute majority. It is the great battle that is on the horizon in 2029, after Sergio Mattarella’s seven years in office, since the head of state in Italy has some decisive powers and margin of influence, such as appointing ministers, dissolving the chambers and calling elections. The opposition fears that it is a maneuver by Meloni to impose a new head of state related to his ideology. The Government has agreed to put a limit on the majority that is obtained as a gift, a maximum of 220 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (55%) and 113 in the Senate (56.5%), but to these figures we must add others from territories with special status and the vote from abroad, 16 and 11 in each chamber, bringing the winner of the elections to 57% and 59.5% respectively. Although it is true that if the left won, this side would be the beneficiary. For this reason, although he criticizes the reform in public as an authoritarian misstep by Meloni, in private he knows that if he wins it will be good for him. Another point of discussion, and this is another trip by Meloni to the opposition, is that each coalition must decide before voting who its candidate for prime minister is. For the center-left it is a low blow, because it is precisely its biggest problem: Elly Schlein’s Democratic Party (PD) and Giuseppe Conte’s Five Star Movement (M5S), the two major forces in the coalition, cannot agree on who the candidate would be. The most comfortable option was to wait for the results of the elections and for him to be the leader of the party with the most votes, but the new law would force them to move sooner with primaries or a negotiated appointment, where new names may emerge, a procedure that ensures tensions and headaches.
International Perspective:
Officials and international observers are expected to continue monitoring the story closely over the coming days.
Political and economic analysts are paying close attention to the potential consequences of these events.
More details may emerge as official sources continue releasing new information.
Source: This article was originally published by Internacional en EL PAÍS and adapted for our international English-speaking audience.
Read the original article here.