WORLD NEWS: “Too risky”… Why Iran does not dare target Turkey and its American bases
New information reveals that the following story has emerged from the international scene.
Since the start of Iranian responses following the American-Israeli strikes, one Gulf country has been spared from the missiles: Turkey. “Too risky” according to analysts interviewed by AFP, who highlight the diplomatic importance of the country led by Erdogan. Iran had threatened, if Washington attacked, to attack its regional interests which, in principle, could have concerned Turkey, a NATO member which hosts American troops stationed on some of its bases. Attacking NATO is a dangerous game Since the start of the war on Saturday, Iran has launched missiles and drones in a wide radius, targeting Israel, Iraq, Jordan and the six Gulf States, with the aim of affecting American interests. But not Turkey and some sensitive sites on its soil, such as the Incirlik air base, near the city of Adana (south), used by American forces within the framework of NATO. Or that of Kurecik (center), which houses an early warning system radar capable of detecting the launch of Iranian missiles. Although Ankara has always categorically denied that this system is used to benefit Israel, its presence irritates Tehran. “In the past, Iranian officials have designated Kürecik as a subject of discontent but […] at this stage, attacking a NATO country like Turkey would be an even riskier bet for them,” said Gönul Tol of the Middle East Institute, based in Washington. These bases nevertheless constitute an extremely sensitive subject for Ankara as shown by the arrest on Saturday of three Turkish journalists, accused of violating “national security” for having broadcast images of the Incirlik base shortly after the start of the strikes on Iran. On Monday, Ankara firmly denial of rumors relayed on social networks claiming that an “American military base in Turkey was hit”: there is no base “belonging to foreigners” and there was “no attack against our country” insisted the authorities. Iran at Ankara University. “Military action against Turkey would risk triggering a similar response from Ankara. And could push the conflict beyond manageable limits.” Attacking a NATO member could also activate the Alliance’s mutual defense mechanisms, “considerably increasing the strategic cost” of the operation, insists Mr. Keskin. For Serhan Afacan, director of the Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM), based in Ankara, Iran seems to have bet that none of the Gulf states would retaliate. Which would not be the case with Turkey. “Iran has no interest or intention to target anything in Türkiye. The risks would be extremely high for him on a political and military level. And would also risk closing one of the last potential avenues of negotiation,” assures the researcher. On the contrary, “Iran continues to accommodate the potential role of mediator that Turkey can play in favor of de-escalation. Targeting it would undermine this possibility at a time when dialogue remains crucial,” he explains for AFP. Turkey has deployed discreet but intense diplomatic efforts to prevent the conflict but since Saturday, it intends to maintain a neutral posture. Our file on the War in Iran “Iran’s choice not to attack Turkey is not a matter of good will but of an extremely complex strategic calculation,” he concludes.
Analysis and Perspective:
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This is part of a broader trend that has been reshaping the geopolitical landscape in recent months.
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Source: This article was originally published in another language by 20Minutes – Actu Monde and has been translated and adapted for our global English-speaking audience. Read the original article here.